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NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A PEACEFUL RESOLUTION AFTER THE KEY WEST TALKS

Dear guests,

First of all, I would like to thank the Central Asia - Caucasus Institute and the SAIS for organizing tonight's forum on a subject that has lately gained prominence in the foreign policy agenda of this country as well. Thank you, Dr. Fairbanks, for your efforts to bring together my distinguished colleagues, Ambassador Cavanaugh and Ambassador Pashayev, and myself, to discuss the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement and its prospects in the lights of the most recent round of negotiations between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Paris and Key West, Florida.

I am honored to present the official position of Armenia on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. And what I want to emphasize from the beginning is that one cannot divorce this issue from the general agenda of the political and economic development in South Caucasus, regional integration and security affairs, and stability of the larger Caucasus region. The resolution of this conflict, which now enters its fourteenth year, as well as addressing the core issues that have caused this conflict and prolonged its settlement, will take a lot of political will and determination on behalf of the parties to the conflict.

I don't want to go into the history of the conflict. The cease-fire has been in effect since May 1994, and the parties have been in search of a peaceful settlement ever since. Armenia is committed to a peaceful solution of the conflict, which will guarantee security and well being of the people of Nagorno Karabakh. We realize that the settlement will have to involve serious compromises by all parties, including Armenia. We pursue the peaceful settlement out of conviction that the alternative to peace is war, which will bring more suffering and human loss to the peoples of the conflict.

The OSCE has been involved in mediating this conflict since 1992, but it is since 1997 that their efforts have been most productive, in the co-chair format. The Minsk Group Co-Chairs have presented three proposals to the parties to the conflict: two in 1997 and one in 1998. The 1998 plan was the so-called "common state" proposal. These proposals are now public knowledge. All of them have been published a couple of months ago, and the political parties and the general public in our countries have had an opportunity to study and to criticize them in the retrospect. You know, the hindsight is always 20/20. These proposals belong to the realm of history now. Yet, they are not completely irrelevant, because they contain the basic elements and ideas for an eventual peaceful settlement.

The next stage in the conflict settlement process, which ultimately proved so effective, was a series of bilateral meetings between President Kocharian and President Aliyev. Sixteen such meetings were held in the last two years, the first meeting taking place on the margins of the NATO Summit in Washington in April 1999. This culminated in Paris, last month, when the two Presidents achieved an understanding on a set of ideas to be used as the basis for the resolution of this conflict. The Paris meeting was the launching pad for the Key West talks, which were in an altogether different format.

If there is any moral to be derived here, it is that it was very important that the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan put the peace talks on their top priority list. It was also essential that the Co-Chairs operated in a very harmonious, impartial, and dedicated manner. I would like to commend Ambassador Cavanaugh, a source of optimism and good will, who has worked hard, in conjunction with his Russian and French colleagues, to bring about a peace settlement.

We are enormously delighted that the new U.S. Administration acted properly and gave this process the priority it deserves. It is of enormous value and importance to us to see a continuation and, in fact, an intensification of the U.S. efforts to promote the settlement of this conflict. The high level of cooperation and the coordination between the three co-chair countries is highly commendable. After his meeting with Presidents Bush, President Kocharian also consulted the leaders of the other two Co-Chair countries, President Chirac and President Putin, on the results of his meetings in Key West. Russia has a very important role to play in the conflict settlement, as the country with established interests in the South Caucasus region and also one that enjoys good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Likewise, France, as a leading member of the European Union, is also an important country with good relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan. We hope that our immediate neighbors, Turkey, Iran, as well as Georgia, will also be supportive of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement process.

Now, about the Key West. The setting was excellent, the timing was excellent, and the format was good, too. Armenia's view of the Key West talks is positive. Although the Presidents did not have much face time together for formal meetings, but there was a lot of discussions and meetings with the co-chairs. The Co-Chairs built upon the mutual understanding that the Presidents had in Paris, and went one level deeper to discuss more in-depth issues. As you know, the next meeting will take place in Switzerland, and the co-chairs are expected to present a new proposal there, that will incorporate the ideas that the Presidents agreed upon in Paris, as well as the results of the many detailed discussions with the country delegations in Key West.

As you know, it is the understanding of the two Presidents that, for this phase of negotiations, maintaining the confidential nature of talks would provide more opportunities for their advancement than if there had been a premature disclosure of their details. It is also their understanding that the unthankful task of having to respond to all inquiries on the peace process is delegated to the Co-chairs. Sorry about that, Carey. Nevertheless, let me stress that, at least as far as Armenia is concerned, the proposal will be presented to the political parties and, eventually, to the public for their approval. I also want to emphasize that this is not going to be just an agreement between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. For the conflict settlement to be comprehensive and durable, the agreement will have to take into account the will of our peoples, all the parties to the conflict.

Reaching the settlement is not the final chapter in this story. It will be followed by an equally challenging process of implementation of the agreement, a post-conflict rehabilitation, as well as development of normal ties between the parties to the conflict, which will, in turn, facilitate regional cooperation. We hope that the international mediator community, particularly the three Co-Chair countries will help us navigate through all the stages in that process with the same dedication, momentum and effort that marked the recent phase of negotiations.

Armenia wants the South Caucasus region to have the stability and the regional cooperation necessary for the political and economic development of the region. We advocate and encourage active participation of our partners and friends in helping us propel our region into the community of prosperous and secure societies. The resolution of the Karabakh conflict will expand the strategic horizon in our region and allow for greater regional cooperation. It will not end all the security challenges in our region, but it will set the central step in laying a foundation for a prosperous and stable twenty-first century in our region.

Thank you.